Ask any insurance carrier which roles sit open the longest, and the answer is remarkably consistent across the industry: actuarial, executive, and analytics positions. This isn't a temporary hiring-market blip. It's the visible edge of a demographic problem the industry has been aware of for years.
How scarce is actuarial talent, really?
Actuarial unemployment stayed below 1% throughout 2025, underscoring persistent scarcity in a field with essentially no slack (DW Simpson, 2026 Market Trends in Actuarial Recruiting). To put that in context, an unemployment rate under 1% means there is functionally no pool of available, actively-job-seeking actuaries at any given time — nearly every hire has to come from someone currently employed elsewhere, which is a fundamentally different and slower recruiting motion than sourcing from a pool of active candidates.
Is this scarcity new, or has it been building for a while?
It's been building, and the data shows no sign of easing. Actuarial, executive, and analytics positions have been the hardest-to-fill roles for five consecutive semi-annual surveys, per the Jacobson Group/Aon Insurance Labor Market Study (The Jacobson Group, cited in InsuranceIndustry.AI). Five consecutive surveys means this has held steady through multiple points in the economic cycle — it isn't a temporary tightness tied to a hot labor market, it's a persistent structural feature of insurance hiring.
What's actually driving the shortage?
Demographics. Only 25% of the current insurance workforce is under age 35, while the entry-to-exit ratio is estimated at roughly six retirement-age workers for every one young entrant (InsuranceIndustry.AI; WGLT/NAMIC). Roughly one in four underwriters is over age 50, and the average insurance professional is in their mid-50s (Slayton Search Partners). In the London market specifically, more than 25% of underwriters are over 50, and roughly 10% of property risk engineers are due to retire within two years (RSM UK).
Why don't declining headcount projections mean less hiring need?
This is the industry's central paradox: even occupations projected to shrink in total headcount still generate enormous hiring need, because replacement demand from retirements dwarfs net growth or decline. Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners, and investigators are projected to shrink 5% from 2024–2034 — a loss of 18,900 jobs — yet the industry will still need to fill approximately 21,600 openings annually over the decade, entirely driven by retirements and occupational transfers, not growth (BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook; LinkedIn/BLS analysis). Insurance underwriters show the identical pattern: a projected 3% headcount decline masks the need to fill roughly 8,200 openings per year, driven by attrition (BLS Employment Projections, cited in LinkedIn analysis).
A shrinking occupation and a hiring crisis can be the exact same occupation. Insurance proves it every year.
Is the retention side of the problem just as bad?
Worse, in some respects. Industry estimates suggest 90% of new insurance agents quit within their first year, and up to 95% leave within five years (U.S. Treasury/American College FACI presentation). That means even successful entry-level recruiting rarely compounds into a stable mid-career or senior pipeline — the leak at the front end of the funnel undermines the industry's ability to grow its own future actuaries and underwriters organically.
What should carriers do differently?
Widen the aperture beyond traditional actuarial and underwriting credential pools. With actuarial unemployment under 1% and five consecutive surveys citing it as hardest-to-fill, sourcing needs to identify adjacent-skill candidates — data scientists, quantitative finance professionals, risk analysts — who can be credentialed into actuarial and underwriting tracks, rather than competing solely for the small existing pool of credentialed actuaries.
Is overall insurance employment shrinking or growing alongside this shortage?
Growing, which makes the shortage a demographic problem rather than a demand problem. BLS data show total insurance carrier and related-activities employment at roughly 3.02 million jobs as of December 2025, up from 3.01 million a year earlier (PIA Western Alliance, citing BLS), and the Jacobson Group/Aon Q3 2025 study found 53% of insurers planning to increase staff in the next 12 months, with only 14% planning reductions (The Jacobson Group, Q3 2025 Labor Market Study). The industry has the appetite to hire; it simply cannot find enough qualified actuarial and underwriting candidates fast enough.
Where is the aging concentration most severe within underwriting specifically?
At the most senior tiers. Roughly one in four underwriters is over age 50, and the average insurance professional is in their mid-50s (Slayton Search Partners). In the London market specifically, more than 25% of underwriters are over 50, and roughly 10% of property risk engineers are due to retire within two years (RSM UK) — a concentration that means the industry's deepest underwriting expertise is retiring on a shorter runway than the broader workforce statistics alone would suggest.
UPPER's POV
A talent pool this thin doesn't respond to faster job postings — it requires finding qualified people before they're actively job-hunting and building succession pipelines years ahead of retirement. UPPER's autonomous sourcing is built to identify adjacent-skill candidates who can be pipelined into actuarial and underwriting tracks, and to continuously refresh pools for roles that have topped the industry's hardest-to-fill list for five straight surveys. In a market where the qualified pool barely exists in an unemployed state, reach into passive, adjacent talent is the only lever that moves the needle.
Key data points
- Actuarial unemployment stayed below 1% throughout 2025 — DW Simpson
- Actuarial, executive, and analytics roles hardest-to-fill for five consecutive surveys — Jacobson Group/InsuranceIndustry.AI
- Only 25% of insurance workforce under 35; ~6:1 retirement-to-entrant ratio — InsuranceIndustry.AI
- Claims roles need ~21,600 annual openings filled despite projected 5% headcount decline — BLS
- Up to 90% of new agents quit within their first year — U.S. Treasury/American College